Deal Thesis Validation
Lakeside Pain Management — 4-Year Hold Period Scorecard
Value DriverPlannedActualVarianceUnit
Revenue Growth (CAGR)15%11%-4%%
EBITDA Margin Expansion5%3.2%-1.8%%
Fee Schedule / RCM Optimization$1.8M$2.1M+$300K$
Add-On Synergies$3.2M$2.4M-$800K$
De Novo Clinic Openings4 clinics2 clinics-2clinics
Provider Retention95%88%-7%%
Payor Mix Improvement (Medicare %)50%55%+5%%
Clinical Quality Scores (Percentile)90%65%-25%%
Technology Consolidation (% Migrated)100%60%-40%% complete
Patient Volume Growth (CAGR)8%6%-2%%
Thesis Commentary
Revenue growth trailed plan by 3 percentage points CAGR, driven by slower-than-expected organic growth in the Pacific Northwest region. Pricing actions overperformed plan by $300K, validating the Day 1 pricing sprint methodology. Add-on synergies underperformed by $800K due to delayed integration of Bolt-On #4 (ERP migration took 14 months vs. planned 6). Deleveraging exceeded plan. Exit multiple and MOIC pending — current indicative range: 9.0–10.0x on shadow EBITDA.