Adversarial Defense Engine

Coastal PT presents a compelling healthcare services platform with 14 clinics across FL/GA. Entry at 11.5x on seller-adjusted EBITDA of $8.2M. Shadow EBITDA of $6.65M implies 13.6x on risk-adjusted basis. Key risks: founder dependency, referral concentration, credentialing transfer timeline, and PMS fragmentation.

14 outpatient PT clinics across Florida (8) and Georgia (6). 22 licensed providers. Founded 15 years ago by Dr. Maria Santos. 65% commercial, 25% Medicare, 8% Medicaid, 2% self-pay. 3 prior add-ons (2 PT, 1 sports medicine). Clinical outcomes in top quartile for outpatient PT benchmarks.

Seller Adjusted EBITDA $8.2M vs. Shadow EBITDA $6.65M — $1.55M variance ($17.8M at 11.5x). Key drivers: locum tenens recurrence ($180K), coding intensity overstatement ($140K), Medicare cap impact ($280K), provider comp normalization ($200K), add-on pro forma adjustment ($110K).

5 Critical/High contract risks: Medicare CHOW ($12M revenue), WellCare auto-terminate ($1.4M), UHC auto-terminate ($3.8M), Dr. Santos severance ($340K), and undocumented referral arrangement with Southeast Orthopedic ($8.6M). Total revenue at risk from CoC provisions: $27.5M.

22 providers verified. 6 credentialing gaps identified across 4 payors. $1.6M billings frozen until re-credentialing complete (estimated 4-6 months). 1 new hire not enrolled with any payor — cannot bill for 3-6 months.

3 PMS platforms across 14 clinics. Consolidated reporting confidence: 64%. WebPT (8 clinics) is solid. Clinicient (3 clinics) is end-of-life. Add-On #3 (3 clinics) on manual/Excel. Migration to single platform: 9-14 months, $380K. Semantic overlay alternative: 6-8 weeks, $45K.

Dr. Santos HIGH retention risk (founder dependency, 18% revenue tied to personal referral relationship, no succession plan). Sarah Chen CRITICAL single point of failure (entire revenue cycle). Jennifer Walsh strong CEO successor candidate. CFO may need supplementation post-close.

No findings drafted yet.